Threat Ledger
Official threats of force in Iran-related coverage, and what followed. The pipeline's local model extracts each threat from a statement article and matches it against real actions on the same conflict axis within 24 hours, 72 hours, or seven days. The ledger treats all actors symmetrically: an IDF pledge and an IRGC ultimatum go through the identical definition and matching rule.
Calibration: do threats convert?
Conversion rates use mature threats only. A threat is mature when it is at least nine days old, long enough for its seven-day window and two-day late-ingestion grace period to have fully elapsed. Younger threats show pending outcomes. The all-time column has no upper bound and is the most lenient measure. On a busy axis, any qualifying action after issuance counts, whether related to the threat or not.
The ledger
Newest first. A check mark means a qualifying action on the same axis followed within the window: a strike, deployment, proxy action, or cyber incident. A dash means none yet. "Confirmed" marks matches where the action article names the threatening or threatened party. By default only the five newest entries are shown; the button under the table opens the full ledger.
A threat counts only as an explicit statement of future use of force by a named actor: stated intent to strike, deadline ultimatums with force implied, or retaliation pledges tied to a specific trigger. Condemnation, capability posturing without stated intent, hypotheticals, and non-force threats such as sanctions and economic measures do not count. Matching is axis-level. An action on the same conflict axis within the window counts even if it involves different parties. Where entity data exists, the "confirmed" marker shows whether the matched action names the threatening or threatened party. The ledger measures reported threats and reported actions in English-language news coverage, not ground truth. Quotes come from stored summaries and excerpts only. The pipeline does not display or store full article text long-term.